Back-to-School 2025: Why Walmart Is Winning the Value Race

The Back-to-School Shopper Mindset

Parents are entering the school season with a sharper focus on price. In Numerator’s August survey of 3,000 U.S. households with K–12 students, 57% said the most important factor in their shopping was getting the best possible prices. That is up from 52% who said the same last year. Nearly all families are relying on money-saving tactics such as promotions, coupons, and event-based shopping.

Where Families See the Best Deals

When asked which retailer is offering the strongest value, 49% of shoppers pointed to Walmart. Target was mentioned by 22% and Amazon by 12%. Summer sales events played a big role in early purchases, with 37% of families shopping Prime Day, 34% participating in Walmart Deals, and 25% in Target Circle Week.

Walmart’s Back-to-School Strategy

Walmart has leaned into simple, low entry prices. The retailer positioned the 14 most popular school supplies at prices below last year. When paired with a $4.98 Wonder Nation backpack, the essentials come to about $16 in total. In apparel, Walmart introduced Weekend Academy, a new tween fashion brand that offers most styles under $15, many of them under $10.

These pricing and assortment moves reach a wide audience. Each week, roughly 270 million customers visit Walmart’s 10,750 stores and e-commerce sites across 19 countries.

How Target and Amazon Responded

Target kept 2024 prices on its list of 20 must-have supplies, still totaling less than $20, and once again featured its $5 backpack. The company also highlighted more than 1,000 items priced at $5 and under, including 25-cent crayons and glue sticks, $2 water bottles, and $5 wired headphones. Its Circle Week event ran July 6–12.

Amazon extended Prime Day to four days this year, from July 8–11, positioning it as a major mid-summer event for school shopping and seasonal deals.

Where Families Plan to Shop

Back-to-school shopping remains largely store-driven. More than half of families said they will do most of their buying in-store. Only 14% plan to shop mostly online, while about 30% expect to split evenly between in-person and digital.

What Parents Are Packing for Lunch

The Numerator study also looked at school meal habits. The top categories for lunchboxes this year are chips, crackers, or pretzels (66%); fresh fruit or vegetables (62%); granola or snack bars (60%); bottled water or other drinks (50%); and cheese snacks (50%). Families that pack lunches daily spend more on snacks and produce throughout the school year than those who pack less frequently.

Takeaways for Walmart Suppliers and Sellers

Lean into price bands. Parents are searching for predictable thresholds: sub-$1 for key supplies, $5-and-under for extras, and under-$15 for apparel basics. Merchandising and packaging should reflect those markers.

Anchor to the $16 basket. Walmart’s promoted “essentials for $16” sets a clear benchmark. Bundles that land at or below this threshold can help shoppers feel confident they are getting the right value.

Tie into new fashion adjacency. Weekend Academy is designed to resonate with tweens. Accessories and coordinating items that align with the brand’s look can raise basket size while staying affordable.

Support the lunch routine. Snacks and single-serve formats belong near school supplies and pickup areas. Multipacks work for routine, while singles capture last-minute trips.

Plan around store-first behavior. With most shoppers still favoring stores, signage and displays need to communicate value quickly. Online assortments should mirror these offers with convenient replenishment and pickup options.

Align with the promo calendar. Parents shop events. Brands can benefit by timing campaigns and retail media around Prime Day, Circle Week, and Walmart Deals events to capture early planning as well as last-minute trips.

Final Thoughts

Price has returned to the center of the back-to-school season. Walmart has communicated that message clearly with simple price points and a highly visible essentials basket. Target’s stable pricing and Amazon’s expanded Prime Day provide real competition, yet the in-store focus and everyday lunch needs favor Walmart’s approach. For suppliers and Marketplace sellers, this is the year to be crystal clear about value, build solutions that map directly to family routines, and make sure products are easy to find both in store and online.

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