Back-to-School Spending in 2025: Flat Budgets, Higher Stakes for Walmart Suppliers

Value is the New Must-Have

Despite the weight of tariffs, inflation, and economic uncertainty, parents aren’t walking away from back-to-school shopping in 2025. They’re just approaching it with sharper pencils.

According to new data from Deloitte and PwC, spending will hover around $30.9 billion for K-12 students—roughly flat year over year—but the strategies driving that spending are shifting in ways that Walmart suppliers need to understand and respond to quickly.

The average per-child spend is expected to hit $570, slightly down from last year. But that’s not because prices have fallen—quite the opposite. It’s because shoppers, especially those in middle- and higher-income brackets, are reallocating their budgets and making more intentional trade-offs.

Lower-income parents, interestingly, are projected to spend 10% more than last year. That jump is likely a mix of necessity and aspirational investment—especially around clothing, where more than half of parents say they’re willing to splurge on a first-day outfit.

And that’s where the tension lies: consumers are spending less overall, but they’re still willing to spend—if the value is there and the product feels right.

Mass Merchants Are the Battlefield

This is not the year to be caught unprepared in mass. Deloitte reports that nearly half (46%) of parents plan to do most of their back-to-school shopping at mass merchants—up from 40% last year. That alone should be flashing in neon lights for Walmart suppliers.

Walmart, with its national reach, omnichannel integration, and relentless focus on price, stands to win big—but only if its supplier ecosystem is tuned to how and why shoppers are buying.

Tariffs on key categories like apparel and tech are forcing parents to shop earlier, spread expenses over more weeks, and switch brands if their usual go-tos feel too expensive. Seventy-five percent say they’re willing to trade down or trade over for a better deal. The ability to pivot quickly with promotional pricing, value-tier SKUs, and compelling multipacks will be essential.

Technology is Both Hot and Cold

Technology remains a lightning rod. According to PwC, one in four parents plan to spend more than $500 on tech, while 42% expect to spend under $50. That’s not just a difference in income—it’s a difference in mindset. For some families, tech is the ultimate back-to-school enabler; for others, it’s a luxury to be delayed or downsized.

Deloitte forecasts an 8% drop in tech spending this year, suggesting that value-oriented shoppers are pulling back. But PwC’s survey shows strong spending intent among a sizable segment—meaning tech brands must prepare for an hourglass-shaped demand curve. Walmart suppliers in this space must be ready to meet both the value buyer and the premium purchaser—and communicate to each in distinct ways.

Gen Z Parents Are Shopping Differently

While boomers and Gen X parents continue to embrace online and hybrid shopping models, Gen Z is doing something unexpected: heading back to the store.

Roughly 27% of Gen Z parents told PwC they’re planning to shop exclusively in-store—more than their millennial and Gen X counterparts. That’s a reversal of the “digital native” narrative and a reminder that physical retail, especially in Walmart stores, remains a powerful channel for younger families.

At the same time, this generation is also leaning into AI tools and social media to find deals, with 67% saying they’ll use AI in some part of their journey and 68% planning to hunt for back-to-school discounts via platforms like TikTok and Instagram. For suppliers, that means messaging must be channel-specific, creative, and nimble—meeting Gen Z where they shop and where they scroll.

The Real Decision-Makers? Kids.

There’s no mistaking who’s actually calling the shots: nearly two-thirds of parents say their children influence them to spend more. Nine in ten say their kids have a “must-have” item in mind already. Whether it’s the right backpack, character-branded folder, or a cool hoodie for the first day, the power of pester and peer pressure remains very real.

And suppliers should see this as an opportunity. Products that spark a sense of identity or carry social currency among classmates will continue to punch above their weight—especially if they’re backed by kid-friendly licensing, co-branded partnerships, or trend-forward design.

Final Thoughts

Walmart suppliers heading into this back-to-school season should treat 2025 as both a pressure test and a playbook reset.

The shopper is evolving—but not abandoning the category. They’re simply recalibrating: thinking in terms of total household value, evaluating needs versus wants, and adapting quickly to price, promotion, and availability.

Winning will require more than just being on the shelf. It means being in the right channel, at the right price point, with messaging that speaks to both parents and kids. It means building promotional plans that anticipate budget-stretching behaviors, and product assortments that reflect shifting priorities.

In a season where every dollar is scrutinized, and every decision is influenced by more than just price, suppliers who show up with clarity, empathy, and adaptability will stand out.

Back-to-school may be flat in dollars—but it’s still full of potential.

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