Retail Spending Eases in September, but Year-Over-Year Gains Point to a Steady Holiday Season

Consumers eased back on spending in September following an active summer and back-to-school season. According to the CNBC/Retail Monitor powered by the National Retail Federation, core retail sales, which exclude autos, gas stations, and restaurants, fell 0.49% from August but were up 5.72% from a year ago.

Total retail sales, which include restaurants but exclude autos and gasoline, slipped 0.66% month over month, while rising 5.42% year over year. The moderation followed modest growth in August and points to a brief pause before the critical holiday stretch.

“While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

The Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card data from Affinity Solutions rather than survey responses, providing a near real-time picture of retail activity. The data show that while shoppers are taking a breather, they remain engaged across most categories.

Five of nine tracked sectors saw month-over-month declines, with the steepest drop in furniture and home furnishings, down 1.87%. Still, nearly every major category posted year-over-year growth, highlighting continued consumer interest in essentials and affordable discretionary purchases.

Category Breakdown

• Digital products, including e-books and games, increased 0.52% month over month and 21.35% year over year.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores rose 0.74% month over month and 8.81% year over year.
• Clothing and accessories fell 1.06% month over month but climbed 7.35% year over year.
• General merchandise stores, a category that includes Walmart, dipped 0.62% month over month but were up 5.52% year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores declined 0.76% month over month while increasing 4.79% year over year.
• Health and personal care stores gained 0.38% month over month and 4.65% year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.12% month over month and up 4.43% year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores dropped 1.87% month over month but edged up 0.56% year over year.
• Building and garden supply stores rose 0.53% month over month but were down 1.2% year over year.

For Walmart suppliers, the data suggests that consumers remain cautious but still willing to spend on value-driven categories. General merchandise and grocery are holding steady, while apparel and digital goods continue to show momentum. Brands that balance price competitiveness with availability and convenience will be best positioned to capture seasonal demand.

The Takeaway

The September slowdown reflects timing more than trouble. After a summer of elevated spending, shoppers are simply pacing themselves for the months ahead. With steady year-over-year growth and improving consumer confidence, retailers and suppliers can enter the holiday season with cautious optimism.

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