The Next Five Years: What Walmart Suppliers Need to Know About the Future of Online Grocery

Online Grocery Is Set to Surge—and Walmart Is in a Prime Position

A new report from Brick Meets Click projects that online grocery sales will grow at an annual rate of 8.9% through 2029. In comparison, in-store grocery is expected to grow just 1.7% over the same period. That fivefold difference isn’t just a forecast—it’s a wake-up call.

Walmart already holds one of the largest digital grocery footprints in the U.S. Its expansive Pickup & Delivery infrastructure, competitive pricing, and integrated app experience make it a natural leader in this space. As digital grocery continues to expand, Walmart is expected to capture a significant portion of that growth. For suppliers, this makes the Walmart digital shelf one of the most valuable pieces of retail real estate in the market.

The New Reality: Grocery Growth Is Shifting Online

The Brick Meets Click forecast confirms what many in the industry have already sensed. Digital grocery is becoming the primary engine of growth, even as total grocery spending slows. Several factors are driving this shift:

• Convenience has become non-negotiable. Shoppers who tried curbside pickup or delivery during the pandemic haven’t given it up.
• Time is scarce. Reordering online and saving preferences is simply faster.
• Digital tools drive discovery. Recommendations, search results, and sponsored placements are shaping brand awareness and loyalty.

Importantly, Walmart’s online model reinforces loyalty. Once a shopper builds a cart and completes a smooth pickup or delivery experience, it becomes their default. Being in that first order often leads to many more.

Why the Digital Shelf Works Differently

The digital shelf is governed by rules that don’t apply in-store. Search rankings, fulfillment performance, and customer feedback all influence how your product shows up—or doesn’t.

Here’s what matters most:

• Visibility is algorithmic. Keyword relevance, product availability, and customer ratings can all affect search placement.
• Content is critical. Strong imagery, clear descriptions, and mobile-friendly formatting can significantly improve conversion.
• Inventory accuracy is essential. Frequent out-of-stocks not only lose sales—they can drop you from search altogether.

On the digital shelf, you’re not just competing with your neighbors. You’re competing with what shows up first.

What Winning Suppliers Are Doing Right Now

Forward-thinking Walmart suppliers aren’t treating online grocery as an afterthought. They’re treating it as a core part of their growth strategy. Here are five common moves:

1. Upgrade Product Detail Pages

Winning brands ensure their PDPs are mobile-optimized, image-rich, and updated regularly. Tools like Cohley, Salsify, and Content Status can help streamline and scale this process.

2. Link Retail Media to Measurable Outcomes

Retail media isn’t just about buying impressions. Top suppliers are using platforms like Skai, Pacvue, and Walmart’s Centella to tie campaigns directly to performance metrics like ROAS, lift, and sales velocity.

3. Strengthen the Supply Chain Connection

Your digital performance depends on your operational performance. Accurate inventory data, responsive replenishment, and solutions like item-level RFID can help maintain visibility and avoid penalties in search.

4. Adjust Packaging for Pickup

Products that work well on a shelf might not hold up in a pickup tote. Suppliers are revisiting pack sizes, materials, and labeling to reduce friction in the fulfillment process.

5. Actively Manage Reviews and Feedback

Customer reviews shape shopper confidence and influence Walmart’s algorithm. Responding to feedback, improving PDP accuracy, and closing the loop with customer service teams can all improve rankings and drive conversion.

Why Now Is the Time to Act

Digital grocery is no longer a niche or a nice-to-have. It’s projected to grow substantially faster than in-store over the next five years. Walmart is investing heavily to meet that demand, and the suppliers who prepare now will have the inside track.

Failing to prioritize the digital shelf can mean being left out of the shopper’s basket entirely. On the other hand, brands that show up with strong content, reliable availability, and measurable marketing support can lock in loyalty and drive sustainable growth.

Final Thoughts

Online grocery is where the growth is heading, and Walmart is at the heart of that evolution. Suppliers who treat the digital shelf as a first-class channel—not just an extension of the physical one—will be best positioned to lead.

The opportunity is clear. What happens next is up to the suppliers who are ready to meet shoppers where they’re headed.

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