The Retail Shift: What Target’s Struggles Reveal About Walmart’s Advantage—and Your Opportunity
The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Cautionary Tale for Suppliers
By now, most brand teams have seen the headlines. But behind Target’s recent dip in foot traffic and market performance is a story that matters a lot more than a bad earnings report—it’s a signal that consumers are shifting gears.
Placer.ai reported a 9% year-over-year drop in Target traffic for February, followed by another 6.8% dip in early March. That’s six straight weeks of declining visits, and eleven consecutive weeks of underperformance since January. These are patterns, not flukes.
And Wall Street noticed. On May 5, Target’s stock closed at $94.02—down more than 30% since the start of the year and nearly 44% off its 52-week high. Meanwhile, Walmart and Costco inched up. Quietly—but tellingly.
How Target Lost Ground—and What It Tells Us
Ask around, and most suppliers will point to inflation and consumer belt-tightening. That’s true—but it’s only part of the story.
Target leaned heavily into discretionary categories like home and fashion—bets that worked during the boom, but not in a more cautious, cost-conscious economy. And its shifting stance on cultural issues like DEI didn’t help. Initial support turned into public backtracking, which pleased no one and sparked waves of backlash from both sides of the aisle.
Consumers noticed. And increasingly, they’re opting for consistency—and value.
Where Walmart (and Costco) Are Winning
Walmart, on the other hand, has stayed grounded. Consistent EDLP. Strategic investments in pickup and delivery. A strong, steady approach to inclusive merchandising. And—most importantly—a sharp read on what matters to shoppers right now: affordability, convenience, and trust.
Costco has leaned into bulk-buying behavior with precision, but Walmart’s omnichannel reach and product breadth are giving it a broader edge. Higher-income households are shopping there more often. Small indulgences, yes—but still with an eye on value.
For suppliers, this isn’t just a shift—it’s a roadmap.
What This Means for Walmart Suppliers
If you’re building your 2025 playbook, this moment matters. Walmart isn’t just outperforming Target—it’s out-positioning it.
This is the time to ask:
- Are your items optimized for value-driven missions?
- Do your PDPs reflect price sensitivity and convenience?
- Are you doubling down on Walmart Connect to capture demand where it’s shifting?
Walmart suppliers have an edge right now. The key is using it.
Final Thoughts
Target’s missteps aren’t just about them. They’re about us—the supplier community, and the retail strategies we bring to the table.
Walmart’s momentum isn’t accidental. It’s the result of clear value, operational consistency, and alignment with shopper expectations. And for the brands that recognize the moment? There’s real opportunity to grow—smartly, strategically, and sustainably.
Matt Fifer
Matt Fifer is a former Walmart corporate leader and the founder of Conversations On Retail and Winning With Walmart. After nearly 13 years with Walmart in operations, marketing, and international M&A, he launched a series of companies focused on helping retailers and suppliers collaborate and grow.
Today, he travels the country exploring how automation, data, and digital media are reshaping the relationship between retailers, brands, and shoppers.