Toys Are Up 13% in a Soft Discretionary Market. Adults Are Doing the Heavy Lifting.

More than half of the U.S. toy industry’s growth from January through April came from toys for female recipients, according to Circana’s June 15 data release, and consumers aged 18 and older accounted for 35% of total industry growth over the same period. Sales grew across all ages and genders. The concentration of growth did not.

Circana’s own global research sharpens who that female growth belongs to. In a follow-on analysis published June 23, the firm reports that toy sales to boys under 15 run 32% larger globally than sales to girls in the same bracket, that sales to girls under 15 slipped 4% from 2020 to 2025, and that beauty and fashion are pulling spend away from toys among young girls in the U.S. and Europe. The supplier read is that the female growth is adult female growth: the woman buying for her own shelf, her own fandom, or her own stress relief, not an expansion of the girls’ aisle.

The topline numbers behind the demographic finding are strong on their own. U.S. toy dollar sales grew 13% through April versus the same period last year, an acceleration from the 2025 trend, with unit sales up 5% and average selling price up 7%. Circana notes the performance stands out against softer demand across most discretionary categories in early 2026.

Collectibles and Hobby Play Are Carrying the Category

Seven of the 11 supercategories Circana tracks posted dollar gains. The leaders were games and puzzles, up 39% on Pokémon demand; explorative and other toys, up 36% behind Major League Baseball products and NeeDoh; and building sets, up 20%, driven by LEGO Botanicals and Formula 1. Every one of those growth engines skews toward the collector, the hobbyist, and the fan, not the birthday party circuit. Trading cards, licensed properties, and display-oriented builds are where the dollars are moving, and those are purchases adults make for themselves as readily as parents make them for children.

Premium Tiers Are Winning While Entry-Level Slips

Circana reports a clear shift toward mid-tier and premium price bands while entry-level price points are under pressure, with higher prices doing more of the revenue work than unit growth. For 1P suppliers, that finding lands directly in the next line review. A price architecture built around defending the opening price point is fighting last year’s war; the sourced growth is in the tiers above it, and ASP contribution is a stronger story to carry into a buyer conversation this year than unit velocity alone. Suppliers should consider whether their modular presence gives the trade-up shopper somewhere to go.

Social Discovery Is Now Big Enough to Show Up in the Tracking Data

Sensory products are the sharpest expression of the trend: squishy toys delivered triple-digit growth through April in both dollars and units. Circana ties that surge to social media and emerging commerce platforms, noting that TikTok Shop has grown to represent 1% of total retail sales and 3% of e-commerce sales in two years, with toys, hobbies, and collectibles ranking as its third-largest category. Kristen McLean, vice president of client insights for Circana’s Entertainment Knowledge Group, said the combination of retail performance and social discovery is moving sensory toys “from a niche segment into a scalable growth category.”

The 3P implication here is different from the 1P one, and sharper. Marketplace sellers can move at trend speed in a way modular resets cannot, and a viral squishy format or limited-edition drop is exactly the kind of demand a Marketplace assortment can capture in the weeks it is peaking. Discovery is happening on a platform Walmart does not own, which makes the seller who can convert that demand inside Walmart’s ecosystem, through Marketplace listings, WFS speed, and search relevance on the terms shoppers carry over from their feeds, the one positioned to collect it.

Walmart Has Been Merchandising Toward This Shopper

Walmart’s promotional calendar already points at the adult toy buyer. The company has made Collector Con, its exclusive-drop event for collectors, a recurring fixture, running its spring edition in March. And when Walmart announced its June 22 through 28 Walmart Deals event, collectibles appeared alongside toys as a named deal category in the company’s own release. Suppliers pitching adult-oriented lines are not asking Walmart to bet on an unproven shopper; they are aligning with programs Walmart has already built.

The spring numbers are not a blip. Circana’s June 23 analysis puts global toy sales among consumers aged 15 and older up 111% since 2020, a group that has now overtaken the 10-to-14 bracket, at 18% of the global market versus 15%, with the U.S. among its largest audiences. That frames the January-through-April data as the continuation of a five-year structural shift rather than one strong season. The shopper the category was historically planned around, a parent buying down the age grade, is still there. The shopper generating the growth increasingly is not.

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