Walmart Takes A Quarter Of SNAP Dollars. Nineteen States Are Rewriting What Those Dollars Buy.

Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, projects that state restrictions on what Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits can buy will put up to $830 million in sales at risk across three categories by the end of 2026. The firm’s new report splits the exposure into roughly $430 million for soda, $300 million for candy, and $100 million for energy drinks, concentrated in the 19 states that will have food restriction waivers in place by year end. Those waivers will reach about 7.5 million households and touch roughly one-third of SNAP participants.

For Walmart suppliers, the question is not whether this reaches their business but how much. Numerator’s verified purchase data puts Walmart at about 24 percent of SNAP shoppers’ combined CPG and general-merchandise spending over the 52 weeks ending March 30, 2025, more than Kroger, Costco, Amazon, and Sam’s Club drew together. Roughly 94 percent of SNAP households shop at Walmart at some point in a year. No retailer sits closer to the center of how these restrictions play out at the shelf.

The Restrictions Land Where SNAP Engagement Is Already Highest

Waiver states were already heavier buyers of the restricted categories before any rule took effect. In the states where 2026 waivers are now active, soft drinks appeared in 23 percent of last year’s SNAP shopping trips, against 18 percent in states without waivers, according to Numerator. Candy followed the same pattern at 21 percent versus 17 percent, and energy drinks at 10 percent versus 8 percent. The policy is arriving in the markets where these categories are most embedded in the SNAP basket, which means the suppliers who feel it first are the ones already winning that volume.

The $830 Million Is A Ceiling, Not A Forecast

The risk figure describes redirected or reduced spending, not demand that disappears. Sixty-three percent of SNAP shoppers told Numerator they would use non-SNAP dollars to keep buying soda if it became ineligible, whether at the same level or by shifting to cheaper options. Sixty percent said the same for candy, and 45 percent for energy drinks. Awareness is already high, with 86 percent of SNAP households in waiver states reporting they know the restrictions are coming. For suppliers, that reframes the planning problem. The near-term exposure is less a volume cliff than a change in how the same shopper pays, which puts price point, pack size, and promotion at the center of holding the sale.

Where demand does move, it tends to move toward adjacent categories rather than out of the store. More than 30 percent of SNAP shoppers said they would consider tea, juice, or coffee in place of restricted soda and energy drinks, and a similar share named fruit, ice cream, or fruit snacks as candy substitutes, Numerator found. For a supplier whose portfolio spans both the restricted item and its likely replacement, the waiver reads closer to a category-mix event than a loss. For a supplier concentrated in the restricted category alone, the substitute aisle is where the recaptured spending is heading.

The exposure is not evenly distributed across supplier types. Soda, candy, and energy drinks are overwhelmingly first-party, national-brand, and direct-store-delivery territory, so the sharpest forecasting and assortment pressure falls on 1P suppliers and the merchants planning those categories in waiver states. Third-party Marketplace sellers carry far fewer SKUs in the restricted categories, and for them the more relevant read is on the substitute side, where better-for-you snacks and beverages stand to absorb redirected spending.

The Benefit Cuts Are Already Moving Shoppers Between Walmart’s Banners

The waivers are one of two pressures hitting SNAP budgets at once. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended work requirements to adults aged 55 to 64 without dependents, and 54 percent of those households told Numerator their benefits had already been reduced since November 2025. The early spending response shows up inside the Walmart family. In December 2025, Sam’s Club drew increased spending from older SNAP households while Walmart.com saw a pronounced pullback, alongside gains at Dollar Tree and Aldi. Suppliers weighing where to put format and channel emphasis should note that value-seeking SNAP households moved toward the club and dollar formats, not online, when benefits tightened.

Last fall offered a preview of how quickly these households adjust. During the October and November 2025 government shutdown, weekly grocery spending among SNAP households fell about 10 percent, from $233 to $210, before stabilizing in early November and recovering soon after, Numerator reported. The categories that pulled back were the ones households could most easily defer, and beverages and snacks were among them. The waivers make that triage permanent in 19 states, and they hand Walmart’s merchants a category map of exactly where the SNAP shopper will be forced to choose.

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