The $26.4 Billion Week Has a Walmart-Shaped Hole in the Data

Online retail spending in the United States grew about 9.3 percent year over year to $26.4 billion between June 23 and June 26, according to Adobe Analytics data shared with Retail Dive. It is the number the trade press ran with, and it will anchor most retrospectives of the week when Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals, Target Circle Deal Days, and Best Buy’s competing sale all collided on the calendar. It is also a number with a hole in it. Adobe measures total United States e-commerce across all retailers during Amazon’s four-day window. Walmart Deals ran seven days, opening online at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on June 22 and closing at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on June 28, according to Walmart’s corporate newsroom. The week’s defining statistic starts a day after Walmart’s event did, ends two days before it finished, and never isolates Walmart at all. As of this writing, no published data isolates how the longest sale of the summer’s biggest deal week actually performed.

The Scorecard That Matters Runs on an Eleven-Day Delay

There is precedent for exactly this silence, and it comes with a date. The statistic that defined Walmart Deals 2025 was not published during the event or in the days after it closed. Bloomberg reported it on July 24, 2025, eleven days after that event ended: spending on Walmart.com grew 24 percent from the comparable period a year earlier, six times Amazon Prime Day’s year-over-year growth, based on credit and debit card transaction data compiled by Bloomberg Second Measure. Similarweb added that Walmart’s web traffic rose 14 percent and app use grew 22 percent while Amazon’s web traffic stayed flat. Those were the numbers suppliers quoted for the rest of the summer, and Amazon disputed the third-party figures at the time.

Walmart itself has published nothing on the 2026 event’s performance. The company’s corporate newsroom carries the June 9 announcement release and no post-event recap, and the Sell Better Blog on Walmart Marketplace, where the company published a seller-facing performance summary in early December 2025 claiming a “single-day conversion record” and WFS volumes that surpassed the program’s first full year of GMV in a single day on Black Friday, has no Deals entry either. Precedent for a recap exists; whether the company repeats it for a summer event is an open question, and Walmart’s earnings communications will not touch the period until second-quarter results, which the company has historically reported in August. Neither Bloomberg Second Measure nor Similarweb, the two firms whose data settled last year’s scorecard, has published a 2026 read. If Bloomberg Second Measure follows its 2025 timing, the transaction-level data lands in mid-July. Until one of those sources publishes, every claim about how the event performed is inference.

What Exists Now Are Interim Reads, and Each One Has a Blind Spot

Three named firms have published data that touches the week, and each deserves precision about what it can and cannot say about Walmart.

Placer.ai is the only firm with a Walmart-specific finding, and it measured stores. Comparing daily visits against the prior five weeks’ day-of-week average, the firm found Best Buy up 12.3 percent on June 23 and holding double-digit gains through June 26, Target with a strong early-week lift, and Walmart sitting just below its recent baseline, according to Chain Store Age’s account of the data. Placer.ai read the week as evidence that spending remains resilient but has turned event-driven, with shoppers waiting for major promotions, and the firm’s head of analytical research, R.J. Hottovy, pointed to consumers’ current deal-driven mindset. The blind spot is the channel. Walmart’s prior Deals events have grown online and in the app, which is precisely where a foot-traffic panel cannot see. Flat store visits during event week tell suppliers where demand did not surface. They say nothing about where it did.

Numerator measured households, through Amazon’s windshield. Its Prime Day recap, built from its Total Commerce Panel and a survey of more than 5,000 verified Prime Day shoppers, found 49 percent of Prime Day shoppers shopping or planning to shop Walmart Deals, with more than half comparing prices across retailers before buying. The same panel caught the week’s demand skewing small and consumable: average order size of $47.66, down from $53.34 a year earlier, household spend near $143, down from $156, and 69 percent of items under $20, with Premier Protein Shakes, Liquid I.V. Packets, and Temptations Cat Treats the top three sellers. Grocery Dive reported from Numerator’s data that only 16 percent of Prime Day shoppers bought grocery items, the lowest share since 2022. The blind spot is the frame: all of it describes Prime Day shoppers who also touched Walmart, not Walmart Deals shoppers in their own right. No standalone Walmart Deals recap has come from the firm.

Adobe measured the whole market and priced the mood. Beyond the headline figure, its data showed the share of the most expensive products purchased growing 19 percent against year-to-date averages, the priciest electronics segment up 51 percent, and buy now, pay later reaching $2.1 billion, or 6.6 percent of online orders. Careful spending in the middle of the basket, trading up at the top. The blind spot is attribution. Walmart’s event revenue is somewhere inside the $26.4 billion, inseparable from everyone else’s.

The Wait Is Not the Same Wait for 1P and 3P

The gap lands differently on the two sides of Walmart’s ecosystem, and the difference should be stated plainly. Third-party sellers are not actually waiting. Order-level results, WFS fulfillment performance, and Deals placement outcomes are sitting in Seller Center now, and the syndicated data, when it comes, will mainly tell a seller how their event compared with the aggregate. First-party suppliers face the genuine wait. The questions that matter for a 1P post-mortem, how much incremental demand the event pulled, through which channel it converted, and whether the online concentration of 2025 repeated, are exactly what the pending transaction data addresses, and Scintilla dashboards and merchant conversations can only approximate them until it publishes.

The practical move, for both segments, is to treat the next two weeks as staging time. Suppliers should consider having the internal event post-mortem drafted against their own numbers now, with the aggregate comparisons left as open slots, so the analysis is a same-day exercise rather than a scramble when Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb, or Walmart publishes. Fall planning conversations will move quickly once the scorecard exists, and last year the retailer that came out of the July data looking strongest was Walmart, a result that shaped Connect budget conversations and event participation decisions for the October cycle. The 2026 answer to that question is currently sitting in a transaction panel on a lag, and the suppliers best positioned for the fall event are the ones who will have read it within hours of its release rather than days.

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