The Easter Forecast Everyone Will See Today Has a Number Inside It Most People Will Miss.

The National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics released their annual Easter consumer survey Tuesday, projecting total U.S. spending of $24.9 billion for the 2026 holiday — a 5.5% increase over last year and $900 million above the previous record set in 2023. Per-person spending is expected to reach $195.59, also a new high. The survey covered 7,845 U.S. adults between March 2 and March 11.

The record number will lead every trade recap today.

More Than Half of Non-Celebrators Will Still Shop the Holiday

Among consumers who do not plan to celebrate Easter this year — roughly one-fifth of the survey population — 54% still expect to shop holiday-related sales. Their primary targets are candy, food, and apparel. This group is not buying into the occasion. They are buying into the deals, the seasonal merchandise, and the products that happen to be front and center when they walk into a store during the weeks surrounding April 5.

That finding sits alongside another: 27% of all Easter shoppers say store displays and decorations influence their purchases, and an equal share cite exclusive or seasonal merchandise as a motivating factor. Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, noted that consumers this year are influenced by “the shopping experience itself, including sales and promotions, engaging in-store displays, and by shopping with family and friends.”

Candy Leads on Intent. Food Leads on Dollars. The Gap Is Wide.

Candy has the highest purchase intent of any Easter category at 92%, meaning nearly every consumer who participates in the holiday plans to buy sweets. Food follows at 90%. By that measure, candy and food are nearly equivalent. By dollar spend, they are not close. Food is projected to account for $7.5 billion in Easter spending this year. Candy is projected at $3.5 billion — less than half. Gifts follow at $3.9 billion, clothing at $3.7 billion, and flowers at $2.2 billion.

Among those celebrating, 56% plan to cook a full holiday meal — a figure that helps explain food’s dollar dominance relative to its intent ranking.

Discount Stores Are the Dominant Channel. That Is Not New.

Fifty-five percent of Easter shoppers plan to make their purchases at a discount store — the top channel by a meaningful margin. Department stores follow at 42%, online at 34%, and local and small businesses at 22%. NRF’s historical Easter data shows the discount store figure has held consistent across years of varying consumer confidence, inflation levels, and retail conditions. It is a durable preference, not a response to the current economic moment.

Tradition is the primary driver of holiday spending overall, cited by 58% of respondents. Sales and promotions motivate 36%, and store displays influence 27%. NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said that despite broader uncertainty, consumers remain committed to seasonal celebrations. “Holidays provide an important opportunity for families to reconnect and create lasting memories,” Mathews said, “even as economic conditions fluctuate.”

Among those celebrating, 52% expect to visit friends and family, 43% intend to attend church services, and 36% are planning Easter egg hunts — the last of which NRF and Prosper note as a consistent driver of candy demand specifically.

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