Walmex Sold the TVs. The World Cup Consumption Boost Never Came.

Walmart de México y Centroamérica revised its full-year outlook in the management commentary filed with its second quarter results on July 22. The company now expects 2026 sales growth between 3.5% and 4.5% in constant currency, with an EBITDA margin slightly below last year’s level, and said the change reflects a consumer recovery that has taken longer than it originally anticipated. It added that the revision does not change its confidence in the underlying business or the strategic priorities already in place.

The quarter behind the revision was thin at the top line. Consolidated revenue grew 1.9%, or 3.2% in constant currency, EBITDA margin contracted 10 basis points to 9.4%, and net income declined 0.7%. The same release carried the Marketplace figures and the board appointments we covered earlier this week; the outlook revision and the demand picture underneath it are what remain.

The Revision Is a Traffic Story

Mexico same-store sales grew 1.8% in the quarter, and the composition matters more than the headline. Ticket grew 2.9% while transactions declined 1.1%, so Walmex is getting more per visit from customers who are visiting less. The company outperformed ANTAD same-store sales by 180 basis points, extending a run it counted at twelve consecutive quarters as of the first quarter. That is share gained inside a market that is barely growing. Its commentary described customers becoming more intentional with spending, comparing more, planning purchases more carefully, and combining physical and digital channels, with value as the primary purchase driver.

The pressure is concentrated where the low-income customer shops. Bodega Aurrera delivered record double-digit growth from its Morralla campaign and continued private brand share gains, yet the company said the format’s overall performance remains below its expectations on lower traffic and smaller baskets, particularly in larger stores in Central Mexico. In Central America, the drag is Costa Rica, where customers continue trading down amid national deflation; the company noted same-store sales in the region grew 2.4% but would have grown 7.3% excluding Costa Rica.

The World Cup Sold Categories, Not Consumption

Walmex went into the tournament with a full merchandising program. Walmart Supercenter assembled more than 400 apparel items alongside exclusive licensed merchandise, themed Great Value products, and football collectibles, and the ONN private brand captured incremental demand in televisions. General Merchandise grew ahead of the rest of the store, driven by Hot Sale and by strong TV and seasonal sales for the World Cup.

The execution showed up. The macro effect did not. In the company’s words, “we didn’t observe the overall boost in consumption that we expected.” The categories built for the event performed while the event left total consumption where the soft consumer had already put it.

Advertising ran the opposite direction. Walmart Connect grew revenue 31% year over year, which the company attributed to strong advertiser demand around the World Cup. That figure sits just below the 33% growth the company reported in the first quarter, before the tournament began, so the World Cup quarter ran at the same pace as the quarter before it rather than above it. The pattern was not confined to retail media: TelevisaUnivision’s second quarter results, covered by Deadline on July 23, showed Mexico advertising revenue up 23% on tournament viewing. Brand money committed to the World Cup arrived across Mexican media even though the consumption lift those budgets were presumably chasing did not, a gap worth registering for anyone who treats media demand as a proxy for consumer demand.

What the Filing Changes for Suppliers and Sellers

The implications split by segment. For suppliers selling through Walmex, the planning picture is ticket-led growth with negative traffic, inside a retailer pressing harder on private brands rather than easing off. Private brand penetration in Mexico rose 90 basis points in the quarter, the private brand price gap versus commercial brands widened 10%, and the company’s first flagship modular lifted private brand shelf space to 25%, with 10 such modulars planned across key categories by year end. Branded items in Mexico should expect sharper price comparison and more private brand shelf beside them, because those are the levers the company says are working.

For Marketplace sellers, the filing adds one figure to the picture from earlier this week: cross-border trade now represents roughly 9% of total Marketplace GMV, up 700 basis points versus last year. Sellers weighing Mexico as an expansion market are weighing a softer consumer against a platform actively widening its assortment and its seller base.

For U.S. suppliers, the read is more limited and worth stating carefully. Walmex is the first company in the Walmart system to publish results and commentary covering the tournament, and the host-market pattern now on record is category wins without an overall consumption lift. That is a data point about how event demand behaved in one market with its own consumer backdrop, not a verdict on the U.S., and suppliers who ran World Cup programs at Walmart U.S. will get the domestic version of this accounting when Walmart Inc. reports its July-ending quarter.

Walmex held its live question and answer session on July 23, with the English transcript to be posted on its investor relations site, and it reports third quarter results on October 27, the next opportunity to see whether the traffic decline that runs through this quarter’s commentary has started to turn.

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